Insights
Quick reads on markets and policy
Written for practitioners and informed investors—free to read, dated and sourced. You’ll find short market and macro notes that explain moves and policy shifts without the noise; evergreen principles that clarify risk, ranges and behaviour; and concise explainers on the themes we’re asked about most. When doing nothing is the right call, we say so.
Investment Notes · Monthly Letters · Market Commentary · Press & Contributions
Investment Notes: How we think
Direction and size are two separate decisions. Most investment committees treat them as one. The knowable supports a direction; the unknowable constrains the size. Position weight should follow the quality of the evidence, not the strength of the feeling.
The barbell separates what must endure from what is allowed to be opportunistic. Two distinct roles, one risk budget. Core positions are sized for durability. Ideas are sized for asymmetric return within the limits of what the portfolio can lose. Confusing the two is how it fails.
The February shock did not create the fragilities it revealed. Three were already present: late-cycle leverage in AI data infrastructure, China's softening demand momentum, and an energy complex more exposed to disruption than its pricing implied. This note identifies them, explains what we are doing, and states what would change our view.
Monthly Letters: What we see
Direction and size are two separate decisions. Most investment committees treat them as one. The knowable supports a direction; the unknowable constrains the size. Position weight should follow the quality of the evidence, not the strength of the feeling.
The barbell separates what must endure from what is allowed to be opportunistic. Two distinct roles, one risk budget. Core positions are sized for durability. Ideas are sized for asymmetric return within the limits of what the portfolio can lose. Confusing the two is how it fails.
The February shock did not create the fragilities it revealed. Three were already present: late-cycle leverage in AI data infrastructure, China's softening demand momentum, and an energy complex more exposed to disruption than its pricing implied. This note identifies them, explains what we are doing, and states what would change our view.
Market Commentary: What we’re watching
Direction and size are two separate decisions. Most investment committees treat them as one. The knowable supports a direction; the unknowable constrains the size. Position weight should follow the quality of the evidence, not the strength of the feeling.
The barbell separates what must endure from what is allowed to be opportunistic. Two distinct roles, one risk budget. Core positions are sized for durability. Ideas are sized for asymmetric return within the limits of what the portfolio can lose. Confusing the two is how it fails.
The February shock did not create the fragilities it revealed. Three were already present: late-cycle leverage in AI data infrastructure, China's softening demand momentum, and an energy complex more exposed to disruption than its pricing implied. This note identifies them, explains what we are doing, and states what would change our view.
Press & Contributions: Published elsewhere
Direction and size are two separate decisions. Most investment committees treat them as one. The knowable supports a direction; the unknowable constrains the size. Position weight should follow the quality of the evidence, not the strength of the feeling.
The barbell separates what must endure from what is allowed to be opportunistic. Two distinct roles, one risk budget. Core positions are sized for durability. Ideas are sized for asymmetric return within the limits of what the portfolio can lose. Confusing the two is how it fails.
The February shock did not create the fragilities it revealed. Three were already present: late-cycle leverage in AI data infrastructure, China's softening demand momentum, and an energy complex more exposed to disruption than its pricing implied. This note identifies them, explains what we are doing, and states what would change our view.