Investment questions we’re following
Our Investment Research service covers companies, funds and markets through an ongoing programme for subscribers. Insights is different. It’s ad hoc and free to read. We take questions from our research, our conversations and the public record, and follow them as far as the evidence takes us. Not every question resolves.
The Portfolio Hidden Inside a Bank Hybrid
As Australia’s bank hybrids are phased out, the capital comes back with several plausible destinations. Making their income figures comparable is only the start of deciding what belongs in the portfolio next.
When Super Outgrows Its Market
Australia’s superannuation system is on a path beyond A$6 trillion. For its largest funds, the harder question is how to turn an active idea into a position large enough to matter without losing its edge.
The Rout the Average Stock Missed
The S&P 500 fell 3% over a month in which the average company inside it rose about 2%. We think the gap says more about what a concentrated benchmark measures, and who sits downstream of it, than about artificial intelligence.
Assets With Birthdays
Canberra's argument is about who the Budget's tax changes are fair to. The market question is quieter: what the grandfather clause tells the landlords it exempts to do next.
The Cash Rate's Round Trip, and the Vote Underneath It
Three cuts in 2025, three rises in 2026, and a cash rate back at 4.35 per cent. For portfolios, the level that returned matters less than what failed to return with it.
The Put Premium That Commits You to Buy
A cash-backed put pays cash at inception, but the seller’s exposure keeps changing as the shares fall. Before assignment, the position can behave increasingly like the underlying equity.
Half the Oil, the Same Contract Dates
Crude has risen 37% since the strikes on Iran, and the reassurance offered most often is five decades of falling oil intensity. The decline is real, and it measures barrels rather than borrowing terms.
The Refinancing Clock Inside the AI Build
Data-centre debt with legal maturities in the 2050s is being planned around repayment within five years. What happens at that earlier date is decided by the market for replacement capital, not by the building.
Three Stopped Calls Before a US$6bn Technology Purchase
A famous fund spent months preparing for a technology sell-off. Then its manager tried three times to buy back in, stopped himself, and finally made the call.
What a Reversal Must Write Down Before It Trades
When a position returns after being deliberately removed, the record should show what reopened the case, when the first trade appeared, and how the new conclusion became this exposure.
Eleven Months of Risk Reports on One Profitable Client
One prime brokerage left an unusually detailed internal record: limits, stress tests, margin calculations, and the decisions made as a concentrated client’s exposure kept growing.
What a Position Ceiling Rests On, and Who Can Move It
A position boundary matters most after the holding succeeds. The record should preserve the assumptions behind it, later revisions, capacity created, and the consequence of a breach.